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Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu v Tomo Endo (Sat 21 Dec 2019)

Match won by Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu. Result: 11-5,11-6,11-7.

Starting level for Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu: 27,627, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tomo Endo: 19,785, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Tomo Endo.

Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu played 83% better than Tomo Endo in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu actually played at a level of 31,656 and Tomo Endo at a level of 17,267. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu changes to +12% and Tomo Endo changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu becomes +3% and for Tomo Endo becomes -3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Srfi Indian Tour' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu: 87%, Tomo Endo: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu: 76%, Tomo Endo: 79%.

Final level for Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu: 28,458, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Tomo Endo: 19,207, level confidence: 79%.