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Karim Abdel Gawad v Declan James (Sat 21 Dec 2019)

Match won by Karim Abdel Gawad. Result: 9-11,11-4,8-11,11-9,12-10.

Starting level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 67,109, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Declan James: 41,711, level confidence: 60%.
Karim Abdel Gawad to win as he is currently playing 61% better than Declan James.

Karim Abdel Gawad won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Karim Abdel Gawad played 11% better than Declan James in this match.

As Karim Abdel Gawad has played below his allowed range at 52,171, his level reduction is 13% before damping. On the assumption that Karim Abdel Gawad would normally have been playing at level 62,858 (based on typical behaviour), Declan James played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 17%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Karim Abdel Gawad changes to -9.6% and Declan James changes to +13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Karim Abdel Gawad becomes -2.2% and for Declan James becomes +2.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Karim Abdel Gawad: 79%, Declan James: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Karim Abdel Gawad: 65%, Declan James: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 65,535, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Declan James: 42,920, level confidence: 64%.