Tayyab Aslam v Noor Zaman (Sat 21 Dec 2019)
Match won by Tayyab Aslam. Result: 11-5,11-4,13-15,11-8.
Starting level for
Tayyab Aslam:
32,658, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for
Noor Zaman:
17,442, level confidence: 57%.
Tayyab Aslam to win as he is currently playing
87% better than Noor Zaman.
Tayyab Aslam won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 44% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tayyab Aslam played
31% better than Noor Zaman in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Tayyab Aslam was taking it easy by anything up to 10%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 26,289 and 32,658 without affecting his level.
As Tayyab Aslam has played below his allowed range at 24,526, his level reduction is 7.2% before damping. On the assumption that Tayyab Aslam would normally have been playing at level 29,301 (based on typical behaviour), Noor Zaman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.2% and 9.5% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tayyab Aslam changes to -4.4% and Noor Zaman changes to +9.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tayyab Aslam becomes -1.5% and for Noor Zaman becomes +2.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Sindh Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tayyab Aslam: 82%, Noor Zaman: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tayyab Aslam: 68%, Noor Zaman: 63%.
Final level for Tayyab Aslam:
32,185, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Noor Zaman:
17,915, level confidence: 63%.