Tayyab Aslam v Muhammad Bilal (Sun 22 Dec 2019)
Match won by Tayyab Aslam. Result: 11-5,11-9,9-11,11-4.
Starting level for
Tayyab Aslam:
32,185, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for
Muhammad Bilal:
19,853, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Tayyab Aslam to win as he is currently playing
62% better than Muhammad Bilal.
Tayyab Aslam won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tayyab Aslam played
32% better than Muhammad Bilal in this match.
As Tayyab Aslam has played below his allowed range at 27,105, his level reduction is 3.8% before damping. On the assumption that Tayyab Aslam would normally have been playing at level 30,090 (based on typical behaviour), Muhammad Bilal played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.3%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3% and 5.7% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tayyab Aslam changes to -3% and Muhammad Bilal changes to +4.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tayyab Aslam becomes -1.2% and for Muhammad Bilal becomes +1.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Sindh Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tayyab Aslam: 83%, Muhammad Bilal: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tayyab Aslam: 74%, Muhammad Bilal: 82%.
Final level for Tayyab Aslam:
31,812, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Muhammad Bilal:
20,182, level confidence: 82%.