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Tayyab Aslam v Waqar Mehboob (Mon 23 Dec 2019)

Match won by Tayyab Aslam. Result: 11-5,10-12,11-7,11-3.

Starting level for Tayyab Aslam: 31,812, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Waqar Mehboob: 16,753, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Tayyab Aslam to win as he is currently playing 90% better than Waqar Mehboob.

Tayyab Aslam won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 59% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tayyab Aslam played 36% better than Waqar Mehboob in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Tayyab Aslam was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 25,369 and 31,812 without affecting his level.

As Tayyab Aslam has played below his allowed range at 24,069, his level reduction is 5.4% before damping. On the assumption that Tayyab Aslam would normally have been playing at level 28,409 (based on typical behaviour), Waqar Mehboob played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.9% and 8.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tayyab Aslam changes to -3.9% and Waqar Mehboob changes to +7.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tayyab Aslam becomes -1.4% and for Waqar Mehboob becomes +2.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Sindh Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tayyab Aslam: 86%, Waqar Mehboob: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tayyab Aslam: 73%, Waqar Mehboob: 77%.

Final level for Tayyab Aslam: 31,379, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Waqar Mehboob: 17,137, level confidence: 77%.