Neal Brooker v Perry Malik (Tue 07 Jan 2020)
Match won by Perry Malik. Result: 9-11,7-11,6-11.
Starting level for
Neal Brooker:
10,665, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Perry Malik:
14,011, level confidence: 47%.
Perry Malik to win as he is currently playing
31% better than Neal Brooker.
Perry Malik won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Perry Malik played
52% better than Neal Brooker in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Perry Malik actually played at a level of
15,053 and Neal Brooker at a level of
9,926. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.4% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.5% and 6.5% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Perry Malik changes to +6.5% and Neal Brooker changes to -4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Perry Malik becomes +2.2% and for Neal Brooker becomes -1.7%.
Given Perry Malik's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 27% has been applied to his level change.
Given Neal Brooker's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 19% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Perry Malik is +1.3% and for Neal Brooker is -1.1%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Perry Malik: 69%, Neal Brooker: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Perry Malik: 64%, Neal Brooker: 81%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Neal Brooker:
10,535, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Perry Malik:
14,169, level confidence: 64%.