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Ben Coleman v Joe Lee (Wed 08 Jan 2020)

Match won by Joe Lee. Result: 11-4,7-11,4-11,7-11.

Starting level for Ben Coleman: 33,043, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Joe Lee: 25,781, level confidence: 62%.
Ben Coleman to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Joe Lee.

Joe Lee won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 28% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joe Lee played 26% better than Ben Coleman in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joe Lee actually played at a level of 32,743 and Ben Coleman at a level of 26,017. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 24% and 24% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joe Lee changes to +24% and Ben Coleman changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joe Lee becomes +5.1% and for Ben Coleman becomes -4.5%.

Given Joe Lee's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 49% has been applied to his level change.

Given Ben Coleman's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 59% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Joe Lee is +2.6% and for Ben Coleman is -2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joe Lee: 79%, Ben Coleman: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joe Lee: 62%, Ben Coleman: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ben Coleman: 32,317, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Joe Lee: 26,407, level confidence: 62%.