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David Smith v Scott Handley (Wed 08 Jan 2020)

Match won by Scott Handley. Result: 3-11,6-11,3-11.

Starting level for David Smith: 8,251, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Scott Handley: 14,437, level confidence: 59%.
Scott Handley to win as he is currently playing 75% better than David Smith.

Scott Handley won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Scott Handley played 175% better than David Smith in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Scott Handley actually played at a level of 18,099 and David Smith at a level of 6,582. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 19% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Scott Handley changes to +19% and David Smith changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Scott Handley becomes +4.8% and for David Smith becomes -4.4%.

Given Scott Handley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 28% has been applied to his level change.

Given David Smith's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Scott Handley is +2.8% and for David Smith is -2.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Scott Handley: 76%, David Smith: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Scott Handley: 61%, David Smith: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David Smith: 8,008, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Scott Handley: 14,816, level confidence: 61%.