Anthony Rogal v Jordan Warne (Wed 08 Jan 2020)
Match won by Anthony Rogal. Result: 11-7,12-10,11-9.
Starting level for
Anthony Rogal:
16,346, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Jordan Warne:
11,831, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Anthony Rogal to win as he is currently playing
38% better than Jordan Warne.
Anthony Rogal won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Anthony Rogal played
39% better than Jordan Warne in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Anthony Rogal actually played at a level of
16,382 and Jordan Warne at a level of
11,805. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Anthony Rogal changes to 0% and Jordan Warne changes to 0%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Anthony Rogal becomes +0.1% and for Jordan Warne becomes 0%.
Given Anthony Rogal's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 32% has been applied to his level change.
Given Jordan Warne's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 22% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Anthony Rogal is 0% and for Jordan Warne is 0%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Anthony Rogal: 86%, Jordan Warne: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Anthony Rogal: 86%, Jordan Warne: 89%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Anthony Rogal:
16,329, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Jordan Warne:
11,807, level confidence: 89%.