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Evan Henman v Scott Handley (Tue 07 Jan 2020)

Match won by Scott Handley. Result: 5-11,7-11,8-11.

Starting level for Evan Henman: 5,268, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Scott Handley: 14,449, level confidence: 57%.
Scott Handley to win as he is currently playing 174% better than Evan Henman.

Scott Handley won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Scott Handley played 65% better than Evan Henman in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Scott Handley was taking it easy by anything up to 22%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 8,379 and 14,449 without affecting his level.

In this case, Scott Handley played at level 9,929 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Scott Handley would normally have been playing at level 11,341 (based on typical behaviour), Evan Henman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 8.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Scott Handley changes to 0% and Evan Henman changes to +8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Scott Handley becomes 0% and for Evan Henman becomes +3.1%.

Given Evan Henman's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.2% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2020' so the adjustment for Scott Handley is 0% and for Evan Henman is +2.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Scott Handley: 76%, Evan Henman: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Scott Handley: 59%, Evan Henman: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Evan Henman: 5,383, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Scott Handley: 14,427, level confidence: 59%.