Andy Whipp v Nick Wall (Tue 14 Jan 2020)
Match won by Andy Whipp. Result: 11-7,8-11,11-9,11-0.
Starting level for
Andy Whipp:
20,249, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for
Nick Wall:
24,557, level confidence: 65%.
Nick Wall to win as he is currently playing
21% better than Andy Whipp.
Andy Whipp won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 52% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andy Whipp played
34% better than Nick Wall in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Andy Whipp actually played at a level of
25,800 and Nick Wall at a level of
19,274. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andy Whipp changes to +25% and Nick Wall changes to -24%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andy Whipp becomes +5.6% and for Nick Wall becomes -5.2%.
Given Andy Whipp's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 40% has been applied to his level change.
Given Nick Wall's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 47% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Andy Whipp is +3% and for Nick Wall is -2.6%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andy Whipp: 80%, Nick Wall: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andy Whipp: 62%, Nick Wall: 63%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Andy Whipp:
20,823, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Nick Wall:
23,900, level confidence: 63%.