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Ben Sockett v Lewis Anderson (Tue 14 Jan 2020)

Match won by Lewis Anderson. Result: 10-12,8-11,5-11.

Starting level for Ben Sockett: 12,116, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Lewis Anderson: 16,682, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Lewis Anderson to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Ben Sockett.

Lewis Anderson won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewis Anderson played 50% better than Ben Sockett in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lewis Anderson actually played at a level of 17,423 and Ben Sockett at a level of 11,601. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.4% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.8% and 3.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson changes to +2.8% and Ben Sockett changes to -3.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson becomes +1.2% and for Ben Sockett becomes -1.6%.

Given Lewis Anderson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 33% has been applied to his level change.

Given Ben Sockett's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 23% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Lewis Anderson is +0.7% and for Ben Sockett is -1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewis Anderson: 90%, Ben Sockett: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewis Anderson: 86%, Ben Sockett: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ben Sockett: 11,979, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Lewis Anderson: 16,774, level confidence: 86%.