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Richie Fallows v Anthony Rogal (Wed 15 Jan 2020)

Match won by Richie Fallows. Result: 11-3,11-8,13-11.

Starting level for Richie Fallows: 30,234, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Anthony Rogal: 16,065, level confidence: 90%. Set manually.
Richie Fallows to win as he is currently playing 88% better than Anthony Rogal.

Richie Fallows won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 59% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richie Fallows played 58% better than Anthony Rogal in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Richie Fallows was taking it easy by anything up to 10%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 23,597 and 30,234 without affecting his level.

In this case, Richie Fallows played at level 26,196 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Richie Fallows would normally have been playing at level 27,081 (based on typical behaviour), Anthony Rogal played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richie Fallows changes to 0% and Anthony Rogal changes to +1.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richie Fallows becomes 0% and for Anthony Rogal becomes +0.8%.

Given Anthony Rogal's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 32% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Richie Fallows is 0% and for Anthony Rogal is +0.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richie Fallows: 81%, Anthony Rogal: 95%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richie Fallows: 74%, Anthony Rogal: 87%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Richie Fallows: 30,189, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Anthony Rogal: 16,115, level confidence: 87%.