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Lewis Anderson v Oliver Rawlins (Mon 13 Jan 2020)

Match won by Lewis Anderson. Result: 14-16,8-11,11-8,11-5,11-9.

Starting level for Lewis Anderson: 16,932, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Oliver Rawlins: 14,272, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Lewis Anderson to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Oliver Rawlins.

Lewis Anderson won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewis Anderson played 11% better than Oliver Rawlins in this match.

As Lewis Anderson has played below his allowed range at 16,185, his level reduction is 2.6% before damping. On the assumption that Lewis Anderson would normally have been playing at level 16,785 (based on typical behaviour), Oliver Rawlins played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.1%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson changes to -2.4% and Oliver Rawlins changes to +2.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson becomes -1.1% and for Oliver Rawlins becomes +1.2%.

Given Lewis Anderson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 33% has been applied to his level change.

Given Oliver Rawlins's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 28% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Lewis Anderson is -0.6% and for Oliver Rawlins is +0.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewis Anderson: 85%, Oliver Rawlins: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewis Anderson: 82%, Oliver Rawlins: 85%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lewis Anderson: 16,815, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Oliver Rawlins: 14,359, level confidence: 85%.