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Perry Malik v Mark Kubli (Wed 15 Jan 2020)

Match won by Perry Malik. Result: 11-1,11-1,11-5.

Starting level for Perry Malik: 14,164, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Mark Kubli: 6,345, level confidence: 60%.
Perry Malik to win as he is currently playing 123% better than Mark Kubli.

Perry Malik won all of the games and 83% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 371% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Perry Malik played 371% better than Mark Kubli in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Perry Malik actually played at a level of 20,583 and Mark Kubli at a level of 4,366. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 45% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 28% and 28% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Perry Malik changes to +27% and Mark Kubli changes to -28%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Perry Malik becomes +6.5% and for Mark Kubli becomes -8.1%.

Given Perry Malik's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 28% has been applied to his level change.

Given Mark Kubli's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.5% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Perry Malik is +3.8% and for Mark Kubli is -5.6%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mark Kubli is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Perry Malik: 79%, Mark Kubli: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Perry Malik: 54%, Mark Kubli: 53%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Perry Malik: 14,686, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Mark Kubli: 6,034, level confidence: 53%.