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Lewis Walters v Harry Falconer (Wed 15 Jan 2020)

Match won by Harry Falconer. Result: 6-11,7-11,8-11.

Starting level for Lewis Walters: 17,646, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Harry Falconer: 19,839, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Harry Falconer to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Lewis Walters.

Harry Falconer won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Falconer played 56% better than Lewis Walters in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harry Falconer actually played at a level of 23,402 and Lewis Walters at a level of 14,959. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Falconer changes to +17% and Lewis Walters changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Falconer becomes +4.1% and for Lewis Walters becomes -4.1%.

Given Harry Falconer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 39% has been applied to his level change.

Given Lewis Walters's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 35% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Harry Falconer is +2.2% and for Lewis Walters is -2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Falconer: 86%, Lewis Walters: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Falconer: 73%, Lewis Walters: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lewis Walters: 17,302, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Harry Falconer: 20,330, level confidence: 73%.