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Scott Handley v Stuart Milton (Tue 14 Jan 2020)

Match won by Scott Handley. Result: 14-12,7-11,11-2,11-2.

Starting level for Scott Handley: 14,896, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Stuart Milton: 8,732, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Scott Handley to win as he is currently playing 71% better than Stuart Milton.

Scott Handley won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 59% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Scott Handley played 36% better than Stuart Milton in this match.

As Scott Handley has played below his allowed range at 12,162, his level reduction is 2.2% before damping. On the assumption that Scott Handley would normally have been playing at level 13,743 (based on typical behaviour), Stuart Milton played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.7% and 5.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Scott Handley changes to -1.7% and Stuart Milton changes to +5.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Scott Handley becomes -0.8% and for Stuart Milton becomes +2.1%.

Given Scott Handley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 29% has been applied to his level change.

Given Stuart Milton's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2020' so the adjustment for Scott Handley is -0.4% and for Stuart Milton is +1.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Scott Handley: 85%, Stuart Milton: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Scott Handley: 76%, Stuart Milton: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Scott Handley: 14,808, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Stuart Milton: 8,841, level confidence: 78%.