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Myles McIntyre v Lewis Anderson (Thu 02 Jan 2020)

Match won by Myles McIntyre. Result: 7-11,5-11,11-9,11-8,11-8.

Starting level for Myles McIntyre: 9,498, level confidence: 39%.
Starting level for Lewis Anderson: 17,291, level confidence: 68%.
Lewis Anderson to win as he is currently playing 82% better than Myles McIntyre.

Myles McIntyre won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Myles McIntyre played 6% better than Lewis Anderson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Myles McIntyre actually played at a level of 13,221 and Lewis Anderson at a level of 12,422. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 39% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 28% and 28% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Myles McIntyre changes to +28% and Lewis Anderson changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Myles McIntyre becomes +7.2% and for Lewis Anderson becomes -3.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Dunlop British Junior Open 2020' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Myles McIntyre: 63%, Lewis Anderson: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Myles McIntyre: 45%, Lewis Anderson: 59%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Myles McIntyre: 10,206, level confidence: 45%.
Final level for Lewis Anderson: 16,708, level confidence: 59%.