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Brian Leonard v Perry Malik (Thu 02 Jan 2020)

Match won by Brian Leonard. Result: 13-11,11-9,9-11,11-6.

Starting level for Brian Leonard: 8,726, level confidence: 46%.
Starting level for Perry Malik: 15,222, level confidence: 51%.
Perry Malik to win as he is currently playing 74% better than Brian Leonard.

Brian Leonard won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Brian Leonard played 23% better than Perry Malik in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Brian Leonard actually played at a level of 12,782 and Perry Malik at a level of 10,392. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 46% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 34% and 34% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Brian Leonard changes to +34% and Perry Malik changes to -29%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Brian Leonard becomes +8.6% and for Perry Malik becomes -6.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Dunlop British Junior Open 2020' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Perry Malik is limited to -5.8% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Brian Leonard: 68%, Perry Malik: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Brian Leonard: 46%, Perry Malik: 49%.

A final adjustment of +1.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Brian Leonard: 9,476, level confidence: 46%.
Final level for Perry Malik: 14,769, level confidence: 49%.