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Nikhil Ismail v Perry Malik (Sat 04 Jan 2020)

Match won by Nikhil Ismail. Result: 6-11,4-11,11-7,11-6,11-9.

Starting level for Nikhil Ismail: 9,843, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Perry Malik: 15,199, level confidence: 67%.
Perry Malik to win as he is currently playing 54% better than Nikhil Ismail.

Nikhil Ismail won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nikhil Ismail played 7% better than Perry Malik in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nikhil Ismail actually played at a level of 12,648 and Perry Malik at a level of 11,828. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 22% and 22% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nikhil Ismail changes to +19% and Perry Malik changes to -22%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nikhil Ismail becomes +5.3% and for Perry Malik becomes -5.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Dunlop British Junior Open 2020' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nikhil Ismail: 88%, Perry Malik: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nikhil Ismail: 68%, Perry Malik: 64%.

A final adjustment of +1.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nikhil Ismail: 10,393, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Perry Malik: 14,837, level confidence: 64%.