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Ethan Eyles v Perry Malik (Sun 05 Jan 2020)

Match won by Ethan Eyles. Result: 11-9,11-1,11-7.

Starting level for Ethan Eyles: 10,269, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for Perry Malik: 14,672, level confidence: 64%.
Perry Malik to win as he is currently playing 43% better than Ethan Eyles.

Ethan Eyles won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ethan Eyles played 94% better than Perry Malik in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ethan Eyles actually played at a level of 17,102 and Perry Malik at a level of 8,810. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 67% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 53% and 53% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ethan Eyles changes to +39% and Perry Malik changes to -53%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ethan Eyles becomes +9.4% and for Perry Malik becomes -11%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Dunlop British Junior Open 2020' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ethan Eyles is limited to +7.9% and Perry Malik is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ethan Eyles: 93%, Perry Malik: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ethan Eyles: 56%, Perry Malik: 48%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ethan Eyles: 11,111, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Perry Malik: 14,008, level confidence: 48%.