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Jordan Warne v Ben Coleman (Wed 15 Jan 2020)

Match won by Ben Coleman. Result: 5-11,7-11,8-11.

Starting level for Jordan Warne: 11,681, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ben Coleman: 32,133, level confidence: 63%.
Ben Coleman to win as he is currently playing 175% better than Jordan Warne.

Ben Coleman won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben Coleman played 65% better than Jordan Warne in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Ben Coleman was taking it easy by anything up to 22%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 18,584 and 32,133 without affecting his level.

In this case, Ben Coleman played at level 22,035 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Ben Coleman would normally have been playing at level 25,192 (based on typical behaviour), Jordan Warne played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 8.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben Coleman changes to 0% and Jordan Warne changes to +6.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben Coleman becomes 0% and for Jordan Warne becomes +2.2%.

Given Jordan Warne's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 22% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Ben Coleman is 0% and for Jordan Warne is +1.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben Coleman: 79%, Jordan Warne: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben Coleman: 61%, Jordan Warne: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jordan Warne: 11,820, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Ben Coleman: 32,085, level confidence: 61%.