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Tom Richards v Leo Au (Mon 13 Jan 2020)

Match won by Tom Richards. Result: 11-6,11-6,10-12,8-11,11-9.

Starting level for Tom Richards: 37,176, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Leo Au: 42,883, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Leo Au to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Tom Richards.

Tom Richards won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Richards played 11% better than Leo Au in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Richards actually played at a level of 42,157 and Leo Au at a level of 37,816. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Richards changes to +12% and Leo Au changes to -10.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Richards becomes +2.9% and for Leo Au becomes -2.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Richards: 80%, Leo Au: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Richards: 71%, Leo Au: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Richards: 38,157, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Leo Au: 41,855, level confidence: 77%.