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Declan James v Tsz Fung Yip (Mon 13 Jan 2020)

Match won by Declan James. Result: 11-9,11-8,9-11,11-7.

Starting level for Declan James: 44,247, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Tsz Fung Yip: 36,372, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Declan James to win as he is currently playing 22% better than Tsz Fung Yip.

Declan James won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Declan James played 23% better than Tsz Fung Yip in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Declan James actually played at a level of 44,555 and Tsz Fung Yip at a level of 36,121. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Declan James changes to +0.6% and Tsz Fung Yip changes to -0.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Declan James becomes +0.2% and for Tsz Fung Yip becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Declan James: 79%, Tsz Fung Yip: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Declan James: 79%, Tsz Fung Yip: 86%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Declan James: 44,194, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Tsz Fung Yip: 36,334, level confidence: 86%.