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Farkas Balázs v Joe Lee (Wed 15 Jan 2020)

Match won by Farkas Balázs. Result: 13-15,11-3,13-11,11-9.

Starting level for Farkas Balázs: 23,529, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Joe Lee: 26,897, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Joe Lee to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Farkas Balázs.

Farkas Balázs won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Farkas Balázs played 25% better than Joe Lee in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Farkas Balázs actually played at a level of 28,175 and Joe Lee at a level of 22,462. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Farkas Balázs changes to +18% and Joe Lee changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Farkas Balázs becomes +4.3% and for Joe Lee becomes -4.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Airport Challenger' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Farkas Balázs: 83%, Joe Lee: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Farkas Balázs: 69%, Joe Lee: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Farkas Balázs: 24,458, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Joe Lee: 25,904, level confidence: 70%.