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Tim Ng v Anthony Rogal (Tue 14 Jan 2020)

Match won by Anthony Rogal. Result: 3-11,4-11,4-11.

Starting level for Tim Ng: 5,251, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Anthony Rogal: 16,090, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Anthony Rogal to win as he is currently playing 206% better than Tim Ng.

Anthony Rogal won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Anthony Rogal played 200% better than Tim Ng in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Anthony Rogal was taking it easy by anything up to 25%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 8,394 and 16,090 without affecting his level.

In this case, Anthony Rogal played at level 15,753 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Tim Ng is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Anthony Rogal: 91%, Tim Ng: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Anthony Rogal: 90%, Tim Ng: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tim Ng: 5,245, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Anthony Rogal: 16,071, level confidence: 90%.