Oliver Hudson v Andy Whipp (Tue 21 Jan 2020)
Match won by Andy Whipp. Result: 12-14,8-11,3-11.
Starting level for
Oliver Hudson:
10,484, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for
Andy Whipp:
20,831, level confidence: 61%.
Andy Whipp to win as he is currently playing
99% better than Oliver Hudson.
Andy Whipp won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andy Whipp played
56% better than Oliver Hudson in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Andy Whipp was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 15,575 and 20,831 without affecting his level.
In this case, Andy Whipp played at level 17,304 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Andy Whipp would normally have been playing at level 18,306 (based on typical behaviour), Oliver Hudson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.8%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.1% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andy Whipp changes to 0% and Oliver Hudson changes to +4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andy Whipp becomes 0% and for Oliver Hudson becomes +1.7%.
Given Oliver Hudson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 19% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Andy Whipp is 0% and for Oliver Hudson is +1.1%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andy Whipp: 78%, Oliver Hudson: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andy Whipp: 69%, Oliver Hudson: 69%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Oliver Hudson:
10,583, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Andy Whipp:
20,800, level confidence: 69%.