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James Bowden v Lewis Anderson (Mon 20 Jan 2020)

Match won by James Bowden. Result: 11-9,12-10,6-11,11-3.

Starting level for James Bowden: 15,567, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Lewis Anderson: 16,760, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Lewis Anderson to win as he is currently playing 8% better than James Bowden.

James Bowden won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Bowden played 24% better than Lewis Anderson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Bowden actually played at a level of 17,969 and Lewis Anderson at a level of 14,520. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Bowden changes to +15% and Lewis Anderson changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Bowden becomes +3.9% and for Lewis Anderson becomes -3.6%.

Given James Bowden's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 31% has been applied to his level change.

Given Lewis Anderson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 33% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for James Bowden is +2.2% and for Lewis Anderson is -2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Bowden: 88%, Lewis Anderson: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Bowden: 76%, Lewis Anderson: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Bowden: 15,892, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Lewis Anderson: 16,408, level confidence: 80%.