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Joshua Masters v Stuart Macgregor (Mon 20 Jan 2020)

Match won by Joshua Masters. Result: 8-11,11-7,11-6,11-5.

Starting level for Joshua Masters: 30,823, level confidence: 28%.
Starting level for Stuart Macgregor: 20,950, level confidence: 68%.
Joshua Masters to win as he is currently playing 47% better than Stuart Macgregor.

Joshua Masters won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joshua Masters played 30% better than Stuart Macgregor in this match.

As Joshua Masters has played below his allowed range at 27,574, his level reduction is 0.9% before damping. On the assumption that Joshua Masters would normally have been playing at level 29,455 (based on typical behaviour), Stuart Macgregor played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.8% and 3.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joshua Masters changes to -0.8% and Stuart Macgregor changes to +1.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joshua Masters becomes -0.3% and for Stuart Macgregor becomes +0.6%.

Given Joshua Masters's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 56% has been applied to his level change.

Given Stuart Macgregor's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 41% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Joshua Masters is 0% and for Stuart Macgregor is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joshua Masters: 53%, Stuart Macgregor: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joshua Masters: 50%, Stuart Macgregor: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joshua Masters: 30,732, level confidence: 50%.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor: 20,980, level confidence: 78%.