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Nick Wall v Harry Falconer (Tue 21 Jan 2020)

Match won by Harry Falconer. Result: 11-6,9-11,8-11,7-11.

Starting level for Nick Wall: 24,147, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Harry Falconer: 20,330, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Nick Wall to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Harry Falconer.

Harry Falconer won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Falconer played 21% better than Nick Wall in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harry Falconer actually played at a level of 24,324 and Nick Wall at a level of 20,182. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Falconer changes to +18% and Nick Wall changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Falconer becomes +4.2% and for Nick Wall becomes -4.2%.

Given Harry Falconer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 40% has been applied to his level change.

Given Nick Wall's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 46% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Harry Falconer is +2.3% and for Nick Wall is -2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Falconer: 84%, Nick Wall: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Falconer: 70%, Nick Wall: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Wall: 23,615, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Harry Falconer: 20,760, level confidence: 70%.