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Harry Falconer v Greg Lobban (Wed 22 Jan 2020)

Match won by Greg Lobban. Result: 4-11,6-11,4-11.

Starting level for Harry Falconer: 20,927, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Greg Lobban: 40,525, level confidence: 68%.
Greg Lobban to win as he is currently playing 94% better than Harry Falconer.

Greg Lobban won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Greg Lobban played 136% better than Harry Falconer in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Greg Lobban actually played at a level of 44,710 and Harry Falconer at a level of 18,968. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.3% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.3% and 7.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Greg Lobban changes to +7.3% and Harry Falconer changes to -7.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Greg Lobban becomes +1.9% and for Harry Falconer becomes -2.2%.

Given Greg Lobban's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 69% has been applied to his level change.

Given Harry Falconer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 41% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Greg Lobban is +0.9% and for Harry Falconer is -1.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Greg Lobban: 83%, Harry Falconer: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Greg Lobban: 75%, Harry Falconer: 76%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Harry Falconer: 20,744, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Greg Lobban: 40,976, level confidence: 75%.