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Richie Fallows v Karim El Hammamy (Thu 23 Jan 2020)

Match won by Richie Fallows. Result: 11-7,11-1,11-8.

Starting level for Richie Fallows: 30,189, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Karim El Hammamy: 27,196, level confidence: 60%.
Richie Fallows to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Karim El Hammamy.

Richie Fallows won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richie Fallows played 106% better than Karim El Hammamy in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Richie Fallows actually played at a level of 41,150 and Karim El Hammamy at a level of 19,952. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 36% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richie Fallows changes to +29% and Karim El Hammamy changes to -34%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richie Fallows becomes +5.8% and for Karim El Hammamy becomes -6.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Pittsburgh Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Karim El Hammamy is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richie Fallows: 85%, Karim El Hammamy: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richie Fallows: 62%, Karim El Hammamy: 57%.

A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Richie Fallows: 31,721, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Karim El Hammamy: 25,919, level confidence: 57%.