Campbell Grayson v Richie Fallows (Fri 24 Jan 2020)
Match won by Campbell Grayson. Result: 11-7,11-7,11-6.
Starting level for
Campbell Grayson:
40,050, level confidence: 51%.
Starting level for
Richie Fallows:
31,885, level confidence: 62%.
Campbell Grayson to win as he is currently playing
26% better than Richie Fallows.
Campbell Grayson won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Campbell Grayson played
65% better than Richie Fallows in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Campbell Grayson actually played at a level of
45,903 and Richie Fallows at a level of
27,820. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Campbell Grayson changes to +13% and Richie Fallows changes to -10.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Campbell Grayson becomes +2.9% and for Richie Fallows becomes -2.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Pittsburgh Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Campbell Grayson: 71%, Richie Fallows: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Campbell Grayson: 62%, Richie Fallows: 69%.
A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Campbell Grayson:
41,027, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Richie Fallows:
31,238, level confidence: 69%.