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Cesar Salazar v Abdulla Al-Tamimi (Fri 24 Jan 2020)

Match won by Cesar Salazar. Result: 5-11,11-5,11-4,11-6.

Starting level for Cesar Salazar: 42,075, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 39,271, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Cesar Salazar to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Abdulla Al-Tamimi.

Cesar Salazar won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 46% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cesar Salazar played 32% better than Abdulla Al-Tamimi in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cesar Salazar actually played at a level of 46,699 and Abdulla Al-Tamimi at a level of 35,383. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cesar Salazar changes to +10.6% and Abdulla Al-Tamimi changes to -10.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cesar Salazar becomes +2.5% and for Abdulla Al-Tamimi becomes -2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Pittsburgh Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cesar Salazar: 85%, Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cesar Salazar: 76%, Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Cesar Salazar: 43,011, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 38,456, level confidence: 77%.