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Lewis Anderson v Stuart Macgregor (Mon 27 Jan 2020)

Match won by Lewis Anderson. Result: 12-10,11-2,11-0.

Starting level for Lewis Anderson: 16,548, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Stuart Macgregor: 21,162, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Stuart Macgregor to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Lewis Anderson.

Lewis Anderson won all of the games and 74% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 183% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewis Anderson played 183% better than Stuart Macgregor in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lewis Anderson actually played at a level of 31,499 and Stuart Macgregor at a level of 11,117. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 90% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 77% and 77% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson changes to +70% and Stuart Macgregor changes to -77%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson becomes +13.5% and for Stuart Macgregor becomes -14%.

Given Lewis Anderson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 33% has been applied to his level change.

Given Stuart Macgregor's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 41% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Lewis Anderson is +7.6% and for Stuart Macgregor is -6.9%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Lewis Anderson is limited to +6.9% and Stuart Macgregor is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewis Anderson: 88%, Stuart Macgregor: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewis Anderson: 46%, Stuart Macgregor: 44%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lewis Anderson: 17,660, level confidence: 46%.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor: 20,124, level confidence: 44%.