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Ondrej Uherka v Ben Coleman (Wed 29 Jan 2020)

Match won by Ben Coleman. Result: 5-11,5-11,7-11.

Starting level for Ondrej Uherka: 16,419, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Ben Coleman: 32,598, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Ben Coleman to win as he is currently playing 99% better than Ondrej Uherka.

Ben Coleman won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben Coleman played 94% better than Ondrej Uherka in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Ben Coleman was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 24,389 and 32,598 without affecting his level.

In this case, Ben Coleman played at level 31,872 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Ondrej Uherka is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben Coleman: 88%, Ondrej Uherka: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben Coleman: 87%, Ondrej Uherka: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ondrej Uherka: 16,394, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Ben Coleman: 32,549, level confidence: 87%.