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Neil Cordell v Joshua Masters (Wed 29 Jan 2020)

Match won by Joshua Masters. Result: 11-8,11-5,6-11,8-11,12-14.

Starting level for Neil Cordell: 17,889, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Joshua Masters: 31,036, level confidence: 48%.
Joshua Masters to win as he is currently playing 73% better than Neil Cordell.

Joshua Masters won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joshua Masters played 8% better than Neil Cordell in this match.

As Joshua Masters has played below his allowed range at 22,251, his level reduction is 15% before damping. On the assumption that Joshua Masters would normally have been playing at level 28,501 (based on typical behaviour), Neil Cordell played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 21%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joshua Masters changes to -11% and Neil Cordell changes to +12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joshua Masters becomes -2.8% and for Neil Cordell becomes +3.3%.

Given Joshua Masters's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 57% has been applied to his level change.

Given Neil Cordell's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 35% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Joshua Masters is -1.3% and for Neil Cordell is +1.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joshua Masters: 69%, Neil Cordell: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joshua Masters: 55%, Neil Cordell: 62%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Neil Cordell: 18,191, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Joshua Masters: 30,585, level confidence: 55%.