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Jaymie Haycocks v Mark Broekman (Thu 30 Jan 2020)

Match won by Jaymie Haycocks. Result: 11-5,11-8,11-8.

Starting level for Jaymie Haycocks: 25,226, level confidence: 36%.
Starting level for Mark Broekman: 13,984, level confidence: 62%.
Jaymie Haycocks to win as he is currently playing 80% better than Mark Broekman.

Jaymie Haycocks won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jaymie Haycocks played 56% better than Mark Broekman in this match.

In this case, Jaymie Haycocks played at level 22,383 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Jaymie Haycocks would normally have been playing at level 22,902 (based on typical behaviour), Mark Broekman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks changes to 0% and Mark Broekman changes to +1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks becomes 0% and for Mark Broekman becomes +0.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Em Noll Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jaymie Haycocks: 60%, Mark Broekman: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jaymie Haycocks: 56%, Mark Broekman: 73%.

Final level for Jaymie Haycocks: 25,226, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Mark Broekman: 14,049, level confidence: 73%.