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Jan Van Den Herrewegen v Sam Todd (Sat 01 Feb 2020)

Match won by Jan Van Den Herrewegen. Result: 11-8,8-11,8-11,11-2,11-8.

Starting level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 32,923, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for Sam Todd: 28,498, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Jan Van Den Herrewegen to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Sam Todd.

Jan Van Den Herrewegen won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jan Van Den Herrewegen played 13% better than Sam Todd in this match.

As Jan Van Den Herrewegen has played below his allowed range at 32,413, his level reduction is 0.5% before damping. On the assumption that Jan Van Den Herrewegen would normally have been playing at level 32,755 (based on typical behaviour), Sam Todd played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.8%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jan Van Den Herrewegen changes to -0.5% and Sam Todd changes to +0.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jan Van Den Herrewegen becomes -0.2% and for Sam Todd becomes +0.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Odense Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 93%, Sam Todd: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 92%, Sam Todd: 92%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 32,784, level confidence: 92%.
Final level for Sam Todd: 28,690, level confidence: 92%.