Guy Pearson v Lewis Anderson (Mon 03 Feb 2020)
Match won by Guy Pearson. Result: 7-11,6-11,11-7,16-14,11-5.
Starting level for
Guy Pearson:
15,743, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for
Lewis Anderson:
18,224, level confidence: 48%.
Lewis Anderson to win as he is currently playing
16% better than Guy Pearson.
Guy Pearson won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 6% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Guy Pearson played
9% better than Lewis Anderson in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Guy Pearson actually played at a level of
17,689 and Lewis Anderson at a level of
16,219. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Guy Pearson changes to +9.8% and Lewis Anderson changes to -11%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Guy Pearson becomes +2.8% and for Lewis Anderson becomes -3.1%.
Given Guy Pearson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 31% has been applied to his level change.
Given Lewis Anderson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 36% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Guy Pearson is +1.6% and for Lewis Anderson is -1.7%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Guy Pearson: 74%, Lewis Anderson: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Guy Pearson: 66%, Lewis Anderson: 61%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Guy Pearson:
15,976, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Lewis Anderson:
17,893, level confidence: 61%.