Joshua Masters v Miles Jenkins (Mon 03 Feb 2020)
Match won by Joshua Masters. Result: 11-8,11-8,8-11,12-10.
Starting level for
Joshua Masters:
30,585, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for
Miles Jenkins:
23,129, level confidence: 60%.
Joshua Masters to win as he is currently playing
32% better than Miles Jenkins.
Joshua Masters won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joshua Masters played
21% better than Miles Jenkins in this match.
As Joshua Masters has played below his allowed range at 28,455, his level reduction is 1.5% before damping. On the assumption that Joshua Masters would normally have been playing at level 29,816 (based on typical behaviour), Miles Jenkins played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.1%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.3% and 2.7% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joshua Masters changes to -1.3% and Miles Jenkins changes to +2.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joshua Masters becomes -0.5% and for Miles Jenkins becomes +1%.
Given Joshua Masters's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 56% has been applied to his level change.
Given Miles Jenkins's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 45% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Joshua Masters is 0% and for Miles Jenkins is +0.5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joshua Masters: 73%, Miles Jenkins: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joshua Masters: 70%, Miles Jenkins: 74%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Joshua Masters:
30,463, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Miles Jenkins:
23,215, level confidence: 74%.