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Stuart Milton v Ben Coleman (Tue 04 Feb 2020)

Match won by Ben Coleman. Result: 3-11,5-11,10-12.

Starting level for Stuart Milton: 8,666, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Ben Coleman: 32,274, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Ben Coleman to win as he is currently playing 272% better than Stuart Milton.

Ben Coleman won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 89% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben Coleman played 89% better than Stuart Milton in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Ben Coleman was taking it easy by anything up to 32%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 13,625 and 32,274 without affecting his level.

In this case, Ben Coleman played at level 18,976 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Ben Coleman would normally have been playing at level 21,999 (based on typical behaviour), Stuart Milton played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben Coleman changes to 0% and Stuart Milton changes to +8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben Coleman becomes 0% and for Stuart Milton becomes +2.8%.

Given Stuart Milton's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2020' so the adjustment for Ben Coleman is 0% and for Stuart Milton is +1.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben Coleman: 92%, Stuart Milton: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben Coleman: 66%, Stuart Milton: 58%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Stuart Milton: 8,812, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Ben Coleman: 32,226, level confidence: 66%.