Ivan Yuen v Israr Ahmed (Wed 05 Feb 2020)
Match won by Ivan Yuen. Result: 11-5,11-2,11-6.
Starting level for
Ivan Yuen:
36,942, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for
Israr Ahmed:
17,205, level confidence: 42%.
Ivan Yuen to win as he is currently playing
115% better than Israr Ahmed.
Ivan Yuen won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ivan Yuen played
154% better than Israr Ahmed in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ivan Yuen actually played at a level of
40,167 and Israr Ahmed at a level of
15,823. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.7% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.9% and 5.9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ivan Yuen changes to +3.6% and Israr Ahmed changes to -5.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ivan Yuen becomes +1.3% and for Israr Ahmed becomes -2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cns International' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ivan Yuen: 83%, Israr Ahmed: 65%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ivan Yuen: 77%, Israr Ahmed: 60%.
Final level for Ivan Yuen:
37,409, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Israr Ahmed:
16,871, level confidence: 60%.