Tayyab Aslam v Farhan Zaman (Wed 05 Feb 2020)
Match won by Tayyab Aslam. Result: 7-11,11-7,11-5,11-5.
Starting level for
Tayyab Aslam:
31,153, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for
Farhan Zaman:
18,890, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Tayyab Aslam to win as he is currently playing
65% better than Farhan Zaman.
Tayyab Aslam won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tayyab Aslam played
31% better than Farhan Zaman in this match.
As Tayyab Aslam has played below his allowed range at 25,836, his level reduction is 4.5% before damping. On the assumption that Tayyab Aslam would normally have been playing at level 29,000 (based on typical behaviour), Farhan Zaman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.3%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.5% and 6.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tayyab Aslam changes to -3.5% and Farhan Zaman changes to +6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tayyab Aslam becomes -1.3% and for Farhan Zaman becomes +1.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cns International' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tayyab Aslam: 83%, Farhan Zaman: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tayyab Aslam: 74%, Farhan Zaman: 76%.
Final level for Tayyab Aslam:
30,752, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Farhan Zaman:
19,258, level confidence: 76%.