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Piedro Schweertman v Ishmael Mubure (Thu 06 Feb 2020)

Match won by Piedro Schweertman. Result: 11-1,11-3,11-5.

Starting level for Piedro Schweertman: 26,234, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ishmael Mubure: 10,152, level confidence: 65%.
Piedro Schweertman to win as he is currently playing 158% better than Ishmael Mubure.

Piedro Schweertman won all of the games and 79% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 267% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Piedro Schweertman played 267% better than Ishmael Mubure in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Piedro Schweertman actually played at a level of 31,250 and Ishmael Mubure at a level of 8,523. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Piedro Schweertman changes to +9.1% and Ishmael Mubure changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Piedro Schweertman becomes +2.4% and for Ishmael Mubure becomes -3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Dutch Nationals' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Piedro Schweertman: 91%, Ishmael Mubure: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Piedro Schweertman: 76%, Ishmael Mubure: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Piedro Schweertman: 26,833, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Ishmael Mubure: 9,791, level confidence: 68%.