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Leo Au v Marwan Elshorbagy (Fri 07 Feb 2020)

Match won by Leo Au. Result: 8-11,11-6,11-5,7-11,13-11.

Starting level for Leo Au: 42,199, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Marwan Elshorbagy: 50,251, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Marwan Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Leo Au.

Leo Au won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leo Au played 11% better than Marwan Elshorbagy in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Leo Au actually played at a level of 48,496 and Marwan Elshorbagy at a level of 43,726. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leo Au changes to +12% and Marwan Elshorbagy changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leo Au becomes +2.8% and for Marwan Elshorbagy becomes -3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Motor City Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leo Au: 89%, Marwan Elshorbagy: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leo Au: 77%, Marwan Elshorbagy: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Leo Au: 43,366, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Marwan Elshorbagy: 48,880, level confidence: 74%.