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Mohamed Elsherbini v Leo Au (Sat 08 Feb 2020)

Match won by Mohamed Elsherbini. Result: 11-4,11-8,11-9.

Starting level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 38,523, level confidence: 44%.
Starting level for Leo Au: 43,366, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Leo Au to win as he is currently playing 13% better than Mohamed Elsherbini.

Mohamed Elsherbini won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elsherbini played 56% better than Leo Au in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Elsherbini actually played at a level of 51,121 and Leo Au at a level of 32,679. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 33% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elsherbini changes to +31% and Leo Au changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elsherbini becomes +5.9% and for Leo Au becomes -3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Motor City Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mohamed Elsherbini is limited to +5.3% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elsherbini: 67%, Leo Au: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elsherbini: 50%, Leo Au: 66%.

A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 40,604, level confidence: 50%.
Final level for Leo Au: 42,528, level confidence: 66%.