Lewis Anderson v Jack Martell (Wed 12 Feb 2020)
Match won by Lewis Anderson. Result: 9-11,12-10,11-3,11-6.
Starting level for
Lewis Anderson:
19,869, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Jack Martell:
11,567, level confidence: 65%.
Lewis Anderson to win as he is currently playing
72% better than Jack Martell.
Lewis Anderson won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewis Anderson played
31% better than Jack Martell in this match.
As Lewis Anderson has played below his allowed range at 15,817, his level reduction is 4.3% before damping. On the assumption that Lewis Anderson would normally have been playing at level 18,297 (based on typical behaviour), Jack Martell played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.9%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.3% and 7.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson changes to -3% and Jack Martell changes to +7.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson becomes -1.3% and for Jack Martell becomes +2.5%.
Given Lewis Anderson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 39% has been applied to his level change.
Given Jack Martell's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 21% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Lewis Anderson is -0.7% and for Jack Martell is +1.5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewis Anderson: 85%, Jack Martell: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewis Anderson: 74%, Jack Martell: 71%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Lewis Anderson:
19,704, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Jack Martell:
11,727, level confidence: 71%.