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Ben Coleman v Jan Van Den Herrewegen (Wed 12 Feb 2020)

Match won by Ben Coleman. Result: 11-4,10-12,11-5,11-2.

Starting level for Ben Coleman: 32,029, level confidence: 51%.
Starting level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 32,486, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Jan Van Den Herrewegen to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Ben Coleman.

Ben Coleman won 75% of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 87% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben Coleman played 45% better than Jan Van Den Herrewegen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ben Coleman actually played at a level of 38,902 and Jan Van Den Herrewegen at a level of 26,747. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben Coleman changes to +21% and Jan Van Den Herrewegen changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben Coleman becomes +4.5% and for Jan Van Den Herrewegen becomes -2.8%.

Given Ben Coleman's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 58% has been applied to his level change.

Given Jan Van Den Herrewegen's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 59% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Ben Coleman is +2.2% and for Jan Van Den Herrewegen is -1.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben Coleman: 72%, Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben Coleman: 59%, Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ben Coleman: 32,671, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 32,019, level confidence: 77%.