Lewis Anderson v Tobias Weggen (Sat 15 Feb 2020)
Match won by Lewis Anderson. Result: 8-11,8-11,11-7,11-8,11-7.
Starting level for
Lewis Anderson:
19,909, level confidence: 49%.
Starting level for
Tobias Weggen:
10,861, level confidence: 65%.
Lewis Anderson to win as he is currently playing
83% better than Tobias Weggen.
Lewis Anderson won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewis Anderson played
10% better than Tobias Weggen in this match.
As Lewis Anderson has played below his allowed range at 13,954, his level reduction is 16% before damping. On the assumption that Lewis Anderson would normally have been playing at level 17,985 (based on typical behaviour), Tobias Weggen played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 23%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 16% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson changes to -12% and Tobias Weggen changes to +12%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson becomes -3.2% and for Tobias Weggen becomes +3.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'DSMP-DSQV PSA Satellite Open 2020' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewis Anderson: 70%, Tobias Weggen: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewis Anderson: 54%, Tobias Weggen: 63%.
Final level for Lewis Anderson:
19,300, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Tobias Weggen:
11,251, level confidence: 63%.