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Lewis Anderson v Tobias Weggen (Sat 15 Feb 2020)

Match won by Lewis Anderson. Result: 8-11,8-11,11-7,11-8,11-7.

Starting level for Lewis Anderson: 19,909, level confidence: 49%.
Starting level for Tobias Weggen: 10,861, level confidence: 65%.
Lewis Anderson to win as he is currently playing 83% better than Tobias Weggen.

Lewis Anderson won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewis Anderson played 10% better than Tobias Weggen in this match.

As Lewis Anderson has played below his allowed range at 13,954, his level reduction is 16% before damping. On the assumption that Lewis Anderson would normally have been playing at level 17,985 (based on typical behaviour), Tobias Weggen played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 23%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson changes to -12% and Tobias Weggen changes to +12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson becomes -3.2% and for Tobias Weggen becomes +3.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'DSMP-DSQV PSA Satellite Open 2020' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewis Anderson: 70%, Tobias Weggen: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewis Anderson: 54%, Tobias Weggen: 63%.

Final level for Lewis Anderson: 19,300, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Tobias Weggen: 11,251, level confidence: 63%.